WHAT REALLY MATTERS: BIG SKY PLAY
September 19, 2012
by Mike Lund, Athletics Media Relations Director
comments: pdx04156@pdx.edu
It may be a cliche, but it is true. The games that really matter are in the Big Sky Conference. And they start to truly matter this week when the Vikings host their Big Sky Conference opener against Southern Utah at JELD-WEN Field.
Saturday’s game should be a “what-are-you-made-of” moment, or perhaps series of moments, for the Viking football team. They come into this one off two losses, a handful of injuries, uneven play and a defense trying to find itself. But PSU can right the ship very quickly with a good performance on Saturday.
Nigel Burton likes to say, “if you are on the field, you are expected to get the job done. Nobody cares if you are a freshman, nobody cares if you are a walk-on. Those guys are going to try to rip your face off and beat you. You have got to perform...” So there is nothing left for the Vikings to do but show what they are made of against the Thunderbirds. That’s why there is the wording “NO EXCUSES” on the front of every helmet worn by every Viking.
What has been a pretty solid Viking offense will have a chance to score points against Southern Utah. The Thunderbirds have given up 477 yards and 35 points per game so far. So, expect the Vikings to move it, and score it. But look out. SUU also forces lots of turnovers (9 in three games) and sacks (also 9).
Sure enough, the Vikings pass defense will be tested again this week. T-Birds quarterback Brad Sorenson was picked as a preseason All-Big Sky player though he has never played in a Big Sky game. Some lists even have him as a preseason All-American. He threw for over 3,000 yards in 2011. This season, the 6-5, 230-pound NFL prospect has 657 yards and seven touchdowns in three games.
Would I be going out on a limb if I said I expect a wide-open, high-scoring game?
Despite a not-unexpected loss to Washington I was impressed with the way the Vikings competed hard to the final play in Seattle. I continued to see strong play from the linebackers, and the ability of the offense to get big plays from different players.
The Viking defense has one ugly stat it needs to improve on. In three games, PSU has allowed 758 yards of offense and 92 points in the first half. In the second half it has allowed just 415 yards and 29 points. Unfortunately for PSU the damage was done in the first half at North Dakota and Washington. The good news is the Vikings have shown there is no quit when they are down. They need to find a way to get off to a good start against Southern Utah.
Hey, the Vikings need to find it because it gets no easier. There are a lot of big arms in their future. After Sorenson, Kevin Yost of Idaho State (400+ yards per game so far), Kyle Padron of Eastern Washington (300+ yards per game) and DeNarius McGhee of Montana State (7 TDs, 2010 Big Sky Player of the Year) will be a few of the top quarterbacks they will face.
Special teams have struggled. An injury to a kicker really sets you back. And as we’ve learned, long snappers are vital as well. But really, the protections have to improve as PSU has given up a handful of blocks. A risk-taking group under Nigel Burton’s leadership with fakes, blocks and two-point conversion attempts, they have usually seen the risks go their way the past few seasons. It hasn’t been that way in 2012. But special teams won’t fail to be interesting. We saw the Vikings extremely close to blocking a punt in Seattle. I expect one (after seven last season) to show up real soon.
STAT OF THE WEEK: Portland State has made seven trips into the red zone (inside the opponent’s 20-yard line) so far this season. The Vikings have scored only two touchdowns on those trips (with three field goals). That 2-7 touchdown rate is a bit of a concern. But not much of a concern yet. Why? Because the Vikings are scoring TDs at a remarkable rate with the big play. Portland State has eight touchdowns of 25 yards or longer already this season, including: DJ Adams 46-yard TD run, Justin Lilley 36-yard TD pass from Kieran McDonagh, Shaq Richard 80-yard TD pass from McDonagh, Justin Monahan 65-yard TD pass from McDonagh, Monahan 47-yard TD pass from McDonagh, Adams 38-yard TD run, Alex Toureen 25-yard TD pass from McDonagh, and Nevin Lewis 70-yard TD pass from McDonagh. That puts McDonagh’s average touchdown pass length at 53.8 yards. Yikes-a-hootie, that’s a big arm!
EX-VIKS BATTLE IT OUT: When former Viking football coach (1993-2006) Tim Walsh’s Cal Poly football team travel to former Viking Athletic Director (2000-05) Tom Burman’s Wyoming Cowboys, it figured to be just another paycheck and a loss for an FCS school. But Walsh’s team beat Burman’s (he is the AD at Wyoming now), 24-22. That had to be a tough check for Burman to write... of course Walsh led the Vikings to a couple of wins over FBS schools (Hawai’i and New Mexico) while at PSU.
THERE IS NO JUSTICE: The Big Sky Conference now has four wins over FBS schools this year. The last time that occured was 1982. In addition to Cal Poly’s (2-0) win over Wyoming, Eastern Washington (1-1) beat Idaho, 20-3, and nearly beat Washington State, losing 24-20. Sacramento State (2-1) defeated Colorado, 30-28. And Northern Arizona (2-1) has beaten UNLV, 17-14. The irony is that only Eastern Washington has earned a national ranking this year (#9). I’m a voter in the poll and have included Cal Poly and Sacramento State in my top 25 the last two weeks, while strongly considering NAU (though I am not very impressed with a poor UNLV team).
CONGRATULATIONS ARE IN ORDER: Viking offensive line coach Brad Davis and his wife, Anecia, added a baby boy to the Viking team early Wednesday morning.
VIKINGS ARE FINDING OUT WHO THEY ARE
September 5, 2012
by Mike Lund, Athletics Media Relations Director
comments: pdx04156@pdx.edu
I keep thinking of that old clip of former NFL Head Coach Dennis Green screaming at a roomful of media following a tough loss to a good team... “They were exactly who we THOUGHT they were!!” he shouted.
That was my appraisal of the Carroll College football team. They were exactly who I thought they would be: a very tough opponent that played sound football and wasn’t going to be an easy out for the Portland State football team. Up front on both sides of the line, Carroll was good. The Vikings had to earn their rushing yards and finished the game with just a slight advantage in total offense. Where PSU had the distinct advantage was overall athleticism and speed, and that is where they took advantage, making a handful of big plays and cruising to a relatively easy 38-20 victory.
So, what do we take away from the win?
It always starts at quarterback, and I think the Vikings have a very good one in Kieran McDonagh. Sure, he is young and bound to hit some rough spots over the course of the season. But, he avoided bad decisions, only missing on a few passes in which he had opportunities. His accuracy should improve as he gets more comfortable with his teammates and the offense. He can heave it 50 yards downfield with ease. And how about those two Carroll defenders that the stout 240-pounder blew up on two different plays when he tucked and ran?
(Side note: look for a story on Kieran McDonagh on KPTVs Oregon Sports Final this Sunday, playing the ukelele.
And enjoy this story on Kieran by the wordsmith Ian Ruder of the Oregonian.)
At running back, Justin Lilley got the start, but DJ Adams ended up with the best day and the most carries. I think the change from Lilley to Adams to Shaquille Richard and back again will benefit all three as well as the running game in general. All three made big plays, and that is what you like to see.
Yes, the Vikings are deep and very good at linebacker (they were exactly who we thought they were!). And the defensive line definitely looks deep and impressive with the additions of Nick Alexander, Marquis Jackson, Zack Ka’ahanui and Junior Alexis.
I liken Carroll to a good NCAA Division II program. So, the step up to North Dakota as an opponent this week is a natural one. The Viking players and coaches now have an idea what they are working with as a team. They also kept the genie in the bottle in terms of play calling - pretty vanilla on offense and not many blitzes on defense - so that should emerge against a more talented North Dakota team this week.
The test for the defensive backfield comes in the next two weeks when it faces deeper, faster receiving corps from North Dakota and Washington. UND had its most efficient passer rating in history (274.9 rating) in last week’s 66-0 win over South Dakota Mines and a star in wide receiver Greg Hardin. But North Dakota also lost starting quarterback Braden Hanson to a leg injury.
Portland State can look forward to the return of their top returning skill position player, wide receiver Justin Monahan, who had to sit out last Saturday’s game due to an NCAA ruling about his transfer status of three years ago. Monahan along with an already talented wide receiver group should go well with McDonagh’s strong arm.
The Viking defense had a very good second half against Carroll after an indifferent first half performance. The main problem was not consistently wrapping up on tackles. The tackling needs to improve or North Dakota will break away for bigger plays than Carroll.
To keep on winning, the Vikings need to be who we think they can be this week, which means better than last. North Dakota is a very good Division I team, and Pac-12 Washington is just around the corner. Then, the Big Sky schedule awaits.
EXPECTATIONS, THE RESIDUE OF SUCCESS
August 29, 2012
by Mike Lund, Athletics Media Relations Director
comments: pdx04156@pdx.edu
No matter which of Portland State’s four quarterbacks steps behind center for the first snap of the 2012 season on Saturday against Carroll College at JELD-WEN Field, one thing is certain; it will be the start of a new era.
In a smaller sense, it could be the start of an era for that QB, but in a larger sense it is the start of a new era for the program. Once again, it has become an era of expectation.
Where last year Viking fans had hope and the Viking team had belief heading into the season, this year one and all have expectation. The expectation of success. The expectation of top level play.
That is what happens when you have success. Success turns into expectation.
After decades of winning records nearly every season, numerous post-season appearances and perennial expectations for both, Portland State had a gloomy four-year span of losing from 2007-10. That was the longest stretch of losing years at PSU since a four-year span from 1965-68. And with 11 wins over those four years it was the fewest in a four-year span since winning only 10 between 1958-61 when PSU was only playing 8 or 9 games a year (Yikes!).
It’s amazing how quickly success becomes expectation. A five-game improvement in 2011 to a 7-4 record, along with a full program transformation by Head Coach Nigel Burton and his staff has put Portland State back in the era of expectation.
The Vikings and their fans now expect to win, expect to be one of the best teams in the Big Sky Conference, expect to reach the NCAA Playoffs. Anything less will be a disappointment... and that, my friends, is the ugly backside of expectation; disappointment (See Greg Oden/Portland Trail Blazers).
According to the Big Sky Conference pollsters - coaches and media alike - the Vikings are expected to finish fourth in the league this year. No, its not first, but it’s a fairly high expectation in a now-13-team league that features several of the best teams in the nation at the FCS level.
I believe fourth is a fair expectation of a Viking team that is loaded with talent and athleticism but will still need to answer some questions at positions with inexperienced starters (quarterback/running back/defensive back). If those answers are what everyone around the program expect, the Vikings will win, challenge at the top of the Big Sky, and make a great run at a first post-season appearance in 12 years.
The University of Montana is glaringly absent from the Vikings 2012 schedule (as is Sacramento State and Weber State for the first time in 17 years), but this year’s campaign will be even more challenging than last, making expectations all the more difficult to reach.
Even this week’s opponent, NAIA Carroll College, will make you forget all about the Southern Oregons and Willamettes of seasons past. Carroll has won six national championships in the last decade and finished second in the nation in 2011. The Fighting Saints also feature a bruising and talented running game for which the Vikings had better be ready.
The rest of the non-conference schedule will be extremely tough as the Vikings go on the road to play North Dakota (8-3 in 2011 and 16 returning starters) and Washington (7-6 in the Pac-12).
Conference play opens on Sept. 22 and the Vikings had better start strong. They face Southern Utah and Idaho State at home over two of the first three weeks, sandwiched around a trip to Northern Arizona. Despite any team’s current or past season record we have learned that EVERY Big Sky game is a tough one. Southern Utah features one of the top quarterbacks in the nation in Brad Sorenson. Northern Arizona’s Walkup Skydome has been a house of horrors over the years for the Vikings (2-7 all-time in Flagstaff including a 62-14 loss in 2010). And despite ISU’s 2-9 record last year, PSU needed a school-record rushing performance (436 yards behind Connor Kavanaugh and Cory McCaffrey) to beat the Bengals, 42-35.
The middle of the Big Sky schedule features the great unknown as the Vikings travel to face two new Big Sky Conference members, Cal Poly and UC Davis. Former Viking Coach Tim Walsh’s Cal Poly team tied for the Great West Conference title last year and you would think he might be a little bit stoked to face his former team in the Vikings and former assistant in Burton. Meanwhile, the Aggies are coming off a 4-7 season but have one of the most experienced teams in the league returning.
PSU finishes the year with two of three conference games at home again. Like Idaho State, Northern Colorado proved to be much better than their record in 2011. The Vikings eked out a 23-17 win in Greeley over the Bears who will be fired up to exact some revenge over a controversial finish.
The season ends in a crescendo as PSU’s last two league opponents, Montana State and Eastern Washington, should be the Vikings’ best opponents of the season. Both are rated among the nation’s top 12 teams entering 2012.
The Bobcats have 17 returning starters, but for my money the only one that matters is their quarterback, Denarius McGhee. A senior this year, McGhee has tortured the Vikings for three seasons. Thankfully, PSU faces him for the final time on Nov. 10 in Bozeman.
The Eagles feature the nation’s top wide receiving group behind Nicholas Edwards, Greg Herd and Brandon Kaufman. They are part of 17 returning starters from a team that won the 2010 National Championship. That Nov. 17 game at JELD-WEN Field could very well be for a playoff berth for one or both teams.
So, while the expectations for the Vikings have risen as high as recent memory. There are still 11 opponents who aren’t buying in. Like new Viking defensive end Marquis Jackson told a reporter in a recent interview, when being asked about his preseason All-America status: “it’s exciting, but I still have to prove myself, do the work and be ready to play...”
That’s the problem with expectations, they have no value. The proof will be on the field, starting this Saturday.
TURNING UP THE HEAT ON VIKING FOOTBALL
August 15, 2012
by Mike Lund, Athletics Media Relations Director
comments: pdx04156@pdx.edu
My wife says the most important things in life are to “hydrate and moisturize.” For me, it should also include “apply sunscreen liberally.”
Yesterday, while watching Viking football practice, my balding scalp crimsoned in the August sun. But I stayed there... for nearly three hours. Bad move. It now hurts to comb those remaining hairs.
On the other hand, as the mercury reaches 100 this week - a couple of times they say - I can be thankful that I am not wearing football gear, like the 90+ Vikings running around Stott Community Field. The temperature on the turf is usually 10-20 degrees warmer than the ambient temperature.
I realize a lot of places around the country see 100 degrees as fairly common. But in Portland, this is rare and our amphibious nature doesn’t deal with it quite as well.
So the Vikings battle on, sometimes twice a day in this rare extreme heat with 17 days left until the opener.
STARTER HEAT
There is definitely heat on the field in a competitive sense as well. Interested bystanders, not to mention coaches, continue to follow an intriguing quarterback competition that includes not only veterans, but now some talented freshmen. Who will start on Sept. 1? That remains to be seen.
One guy that won’t start at quarterback is Nick Green. He has moved to wide receiver and has practiced there the last few days. A talented athlete, Green has also played at safety, on special teams and redshirted at quarterback. It’s another case of Nigel Burton finding a way to get talent on the field. With the youngsters taking snaps looking good, it made sense to give Green, a senior, a chance for playing time elsewhere.
That leaves junior Collin Ramirez, sophomore Josh Milhollin, redshirt freshman Thomas Carter, and freshmen Paris Penn and Kieran McDonagh as signal callers. No matter who ends up the game one starter, it will be a player who has never taken a game snap at Portland State. And, it doesn’t necessarily mean that guy will be the starter in game two, five or 11. I think this competition will be heated all year long. On the one hand, that means uncertainty, but on the other hand, it also means there is talent there from a number of guys, which is good in the long run.
The tricky part is each guy is very different in his skill set. It can be seen, but I can also confirm it from comments to me by offensive linemen like Mitch Gaulke and Joey Esposito. One guy might be a better runner, the other may have a better arm, a third brings more poise in the pocket. I would be presumptuous to say I think I have it figured out. I don’t. There are no answers here, so I will keep watching these next two weeks.
I asked Penn before practice on Wednesday how different he sees the level of play in college as compared to his days at Grant High School. It’s “A LOT” faster, and they are “A LOT” bigger, he said with big eyes. Keep in mind, this is the guy who probably had the best day at quarterback in last Saturday’s initial full-scale scrimmage.
MEDIA HEAT
Another guy who is feeling the heat, but in a different way, is kicker Zach Brown. While the Vikings have a number of players that will get looks as NFL prospects, Brown might be the closest to a sure thing at this point. The heat Brown has felt has come from the media, as he has been interviewed almost every day (sometimes twice) by some form of the press. As I tell the players, interviews are the penalty of greatness. Having to smile, endure a lot of the same questions, and try to say something interesting all at once.
Viewed as the top kicker at the NCAA I FCS level, Zach handles it very well. I would have to say he is the definition of unflappable, and that is probably what makes him such a talent as a kicker. Brown tries not to get too involved in the game as it goes along. He stays in his own world on the sideline, doesn’t look at the scoreboard, and doesn’t even pay much attention to where the spot is on field goal attempts. He just trots out, gets in his routine, and kicks. 60 field goals later and a slew of All-American awards later and it seems to be working.
Other things I have seen so far during preseason camp...
• The offensive line looks as solid as ever. OL Coach Brad Davis does a great job year in and year out getting his group ready. It helps to have talented vets like LT Kyle Ritt, C Mitch Gaulke, RT Mitch Van Dyk and RG Joey Esposito leading the way. It appears that Cornelius Edison, who played some last year as a true freshman, has a handle on the fifth starting spot (LG). Beyond that, the Vikings have some experienced backups, and impressive freshmen like Dalton Milburn (6-6, 305) and Kyle Smith (6-5, 315).
• Running back still needs to sort itself out, but the good part of that competition is there are a number of players. Expect to see more guys get carries this season than last as they share the wealth. Sophomore Shaq Richard and junior DJ Adams should be the key runners and they bring a nice contradiction to a defense. Richard is similar in speed and shiftiness to the departed Cory McCaffrey, while Adams is more of a power guy. I also expect to see Denzel Davis, Justin Lilley and Julian Cruell be factors in the backfield. Ben Bowen and Jordan Lewis give the Vikings seven backs on the depth chart that the coaches won’t be afraid to use.
• Wide receiver should be a strength with some great athletes with great size. Justin Monahan continues to show an excellent ability to run precision routes, go get the ball, beat defenders, and generally make amazing catches. They don’t call him Justin “Money Hands” for nothing. I think Nevin Lewis, Keitrell Anderson, Alex Toureen, Roston Tatum and now perhaps Nick Green as well gives the Vikings depth that is tough to beat.
• By now, you’ve heard a little about transfer defensive end Marquis Jackson. He and Nick Alexander pass the eye test - big, strong and fast. Can’t wait to see how much trouble they can create in offensive backfields. Julious Moore and Dereck Jester are very experienced at the tackle spots and will be counted on to stop the run.
• The linebacker spot is just what we thought it would be; deep, talented, athletic. Ian Sluss and Khalil Bass are poised to have great years. It also looks like one of the feel-good stories could be Jaycob Shoemaker. After suffering a broken leg in game seven of the 2010 season, Shoe is finally healthy and may earn the other starting spot at outside linebacker. There is a lot of competition though. And, some of it comes from the threesome of freshmen that signed in February: Daniel Halverson, Brandon Brody-Heim and Zach Walen. All are making plays and have an excellent chance of seeing the field this season.
• At defensive back, the Vikings are still looking to establish some players. Joel Sisler has moved from linebacker to strong safety and should be a fixture there. Nick Rothstein (that’s Roth-STINE he tells me, but you can call him Rocky) is another true freshman that is looking good and will find himself getting meaningful playing time. Henry Organ has been running with the “ones” throughout camp at free safety. Organ may earn the job, but David Edgerson and Andrew Godinet are also there. Cornerback Mike Williams, one of the most experienced Vikings, should have a starting role as well. After that, several players are battling to be “the guy.” Aaron Kincy should have a great chance to start at corner, but Karrington Jones and Dennis Fite look like they are top challengers for playing time.
• In all, the freshmen that Nigel Burton’s staff has signed are living up to the billing. The proof comes on Sept. 1, and each Saturday thereafter, but a couple years from now we may look back on this class as one of the best ever at Portland State because of some of the names mentioned above and others not mentioned.
SPEAKING OF FOOTBALL: WELL-DESERVED HALL OF FAME SELECTIONS
Congratulations to former Viking running back Ryan Fuqua and Head Coach Tim Walsh for their induction into the Portland State Athletics Hall of Fame. They will be joined by golfer Sarah Tiller, basketball player Seamus Boxley, baseball player Jim Dunn and the 1962 Viking Baseball Team.
Fuqua, who is second all-time in rushing to only the legendary Chip Dunn on the Park Blocks, may have had the best freshman season a Viking ever had. Fuqua finished his career with 4,730 rushing yards, including 1,586 in a tour de force freshman season. Anybody remember that 393-yard rushing game at Eastern Washington in 2001? How about the 71-yard touchdown run on the Eagles' muddy field... WITH ONLY ONE SHOE ON?!?!? I do. Cool stuff.
Tim Walsh is one of just three football coaches in PSU history to having a winning record (the others are named Mouse and Pokey). Walsh coached the most games (158) and had the most wins (90) of any coach. He led four teams to the NCAA post-season, including the 2000 Vikings as Walsh led a very challenging transition from Division II to Division I in 1996. I think my favorite memories of the Walsh era were the wins over a pair of FBS programs (the only such wins in PSU history), 45-20 at Hawai’i in 2000 and 17-6 at New Mexico in 2006. On top of that, Tim Walsh is a class guy.
WHAT I LIKE...
August 3, 2012
by Mike Lund, Athletics Media Relations Director
comments: pdx04156@pdx.edu
Here are a few of the things I like about the upcoming 2012 football season...
First and foremost, I love the fact that Nigel Burton and his staff have recruited a host of local talent for 2012. On the current roster are 20 freshmen who are from the state of Oregon or the Vancouver, WA area. Fourteen of those 20 are from the Portland metropolitan area. In the original 24 player signing class of February 2012, 16 were high schoolers from the Pacific Northwest, 13 from Oregon, and 10 from the metro area.
Understand that any football program is going to need to recruit outside its local area to get all of the talent it wants and needs, and we love the players we are able to get from California, Washington and other locales. But we Oregonians are provincial. We like to see that OR on the roster line. What I really hope is more local talent brings more local fans and the JELD-WEN Field seats begin to fill up.
I like the new Big Sky Conference logo. Unlike the previous mark, this one looks like it belongs in the 21st century, has a little style and motion to it. I wouldn’t mind seeing a new conference name since the league now expands far beyond the “Big Sky” area. But, suggesting that will probably get me a stern look from the league office in Ogden, UT.
I like that we will get to see one of the nation’s top kickers - at any level - perform for one more season. I know Zach Brown will have another brilliant season for the Vikings and likely move on to fame and fortune in the NFL. The value of Zach Brown cannot be overestimated. With his mighty leg, the Vikings are in scoring position shortly after crossing midfield. That said, I hope Zach accomplishes one more thing before he goes. I hope he breaks the record for the longest field goal in PSU history. The current mark is 55 yards by Pat Moore (1975 vs. Eastern Washington) and frankly it is the only significant PSU kicking record that Zach does not hold (though he has kicked six of 50 or more yards in his career). Currently, Zach holds 10 PSU records.
I like that it appears there will be a heated competition for the starting quarterback job... and running back... and linebacker... and defensive line... Stiff competition makes everyone better and prevents anyone from letting up or failing to prepare properly. It also means you have talent.
I like that the majority of Portland State’s newcomers for 2012 entered school during the summer. It can’t hurt that the incoming freshmen have gotten into summer classes and learned a little about what college life is like. They have also had the opportunity to be involved with returning players during voluntary summer workouts.
I like that there are currently seven former Portland State Vikings in NFL camps. That may be the most I can recall - ever. They include: Adam Hayward, Tampa Bay; Jordan Senn, Carolina; Julius Thomas, Denver; Reggie Jones, Minnesota; DeShawn Shead, Seattle; Dustin Waldron, Miami; Ryan Rau, Philadelphia. Let’s hope they all stick.
By the way, here is a recent article on Reggie Jones.
I like the Vikings’ expanded television presence. There is a saying in the media that “if it wasn’t on television, it didn’t happen.” Obviously that is not quite true, but in the case of the Vikings there will be far more “happenings” in 2012. Almost everything is on television these days and that includes the Vikings. Portland State should make at least eight appearances on local television in 2012, including several appearances on Comcast SportsNet, a national appearance on FX against Washington (which is likely the Vikings first national appearance since the 1988 NCAA II National Championship game), and appearances on Root Sports and Fox Sports Arizona which can be picked up almost anywhere in the nation as well. Previously, the most local television appearances the Vikings have had in a season were five (2001 and 2011). All those TV appearances are good for recruiting. Just ask the coaches.
PORTLAND STATE ATHLETICS HALL OF FAMERS
The Portland State Athletics Hall of Fame committee recently convened and came away with a very impressive HOF Class of 2012. I can’t reveal the inductees just yet as all the details are being finalized, but the class includes former Vikings from the 60s, 70s, 90s and 2000s with four different sports represented.
The Hall of Fame induction ceremony will take place on Oct. 5 and the 2012 class will also be honored at the Oct. 6 football game against Idaho State.
BREAKING DOWN THE PRESEASON POLLS
July 17, 2012
by Mike Lund, Athletics Media Relations Director
comments: pdx04156@pdx.edu
Preseason polls are as valuable as the pixel space they occupy on your computer screen. You can read them. You can value them. But in the end, they don’t make a hit, score a touchdown or catch a pass. They don’t win a game for the team at the top or lose one for the team at the bottom.
But, they are instructive as the new season opens, and a starting point for where the teams may finish.
Still, this year’s Big Sky Conference Football preseason polls are particularly challenging to evaluate as four new schools enter the league, and each team only plays two-thirds of the field (8 of 12 possible opponents).
All that said, the Vikings came out a very positive fourth in this year’s Coaches and Media Polls. It is positive for several reasons...
• That selection shows the respect that third-year Head Coach Nigel Burton has garnered for his program.
• That’s fourth among 13 teams, not the previous season’s nine. The Big Sky has added four schools for 2012 - Cal Poly, North Dakota, UC Davis and Southern Utah.
• Portland State lost 11 “regular” starters on offense and defense. The Vikings return seven starters on offense, four on defense and both specialists. More specifically, Burton’s starting quarterback and running back situations are far from settled for 2012. So, coaches and media believe in what Burton is building and the players they will take on key roles this season.
• With the increase to 20 teams for the NCAA I FCS playoffs (24 in 2013!), the chances of the 14-team Big Sky Conference - sure to be one of the most powerful leagues in the country - getting three teams in the playoffs are excellent, and four teams are a possibility for 2012.
• Based on past history, Portland State usually meets or finishes higher than its preseason picks.
In fact, let’s take a look at where the Vikings were picked in the preseason polls dating back to 2000 and compare them to the Vikings’ actual results...
|
Year |
Coaches Poll |
Media Poll |
PSU Finish |
Result |
|
2000 |
2 |
2 |
2nd |
met predictions |
|
2001 |
3 |
3 |
2nd |
exceeded predictions |
|
2002 |
2 |
2 |
4th |
fell below predictions |
|
2003 |
6 |
4 |
7th |
fell below predictions |
|
2004 |
8 |
8 |
3rd |
exceeded predictions |
|
2005 |
3 |
4 |
3rd |
met/exceeded predictions |
|
2006 |
4 |
4 |
2nd |
exceeded predictions |
|
2007 |
2 |
2 |
6th |
fell below predictions |
|
2008 |
6 |
6 |
6th |
met predictions |
|
2009 |
6 |
6 |
7th |
feel below predictions |
|
2010 |
8 |
8 |
8th |
met predictions |
|
2011 |
7 |
7 |
3rd |
exceeded predictions |
|
2012 |
4 |
4 |
? |
? |
So, in the previous 12 years of polling, the Vikings have met or exceeded expectations eight times (67%). During the Tim Walsh years (2000-06), the Vikings met (1.5) or exceeded (3.5) expectations five of seven times (71%). During the Jerry Glanville era (2007-09), the Vikings met (1) or exceeded expectations once in three years (33%). And Nigel Burton’s teams have met (1) or exceeded (1) expectations each of his two previous seasons.
Considering teams only play two-thirds of the current Big Sky field it will be informative to know who they play in any given year to predict how they might finish. Will some teams have easy schedules, and other teams hard? That is certainly a possibility. For example, Cal Poly will NOT play Montana or Montana State this year (though the Mustangs do play at Eastern Washington, and of course host the Vikings). Meanwhile, North Dakota and Southern Utah play Montana, Montana State, Eastern Washington and Portland State this year (welcome to the Big Sky). I am by no means saying Cal Poly has an easy schedule, I am just pointing out the significant differences in the schedules.
This brings up a whole new topic....
Wouldn’t it be great if the Big Sky could get to 14 teams, split into two divisions, each team play all six on their side (and two on the other), and the two division champs could then play for a Big Sky Championship game and the right to the NCAA post-season automatic bid? (ok, breathe...) Hello, Idaho!
That all sounds good, but the fact of the matter is, with the current NCAA I FCS post-season playoff structure, there is not an available weekend to play a championship game.
(Oh, and the chances of Idaho dropping back to the FCS level in football are about the same as me winning the Powerball Lottery).
Getting back to the strength of schedule conundrum (and I was), the Vikings have what appears to be a pretty balanced schedule in 2012.
Of this year's top three teams, PSU plays Montana State (1 in coaches poll/1 in media poll) and Eastern Washington (2/2). PSU also plays Cal Poly (5/5), Southern Utah (8 coaches/8 media), Northern Arizona (9/7), Idaho State (12/11), UC Davis (11/12) and Northern Colorado (13/13). That seems to be a pretty good sampling of top, middle and bottom teams in the poll. (In addition, the Vikings play North Dakota (6/10) in a non-conference game.)
Sadly, for the first time since 1995, PSU will not play Montana or Weber State. And, PSU will miss Sacramento State for only the second time in 30 seasons.
With all the new teams and unbalanced schedule, it will be especially interesting this year to see how the poll-guessers fare. Let’s just hope the Vikings follow their past poll/results trend in 2012.
The Big Sky Conference Preseason Polls
The Big Sky Preseason All-Conference Team
