One of the benefits (and sometimes drawbacks) to being Portland State's Athletics Media Relations Director is you get to hear everyone's opinion on Viking athletic programs, athletes and coaches. Fans and media are quick to offer me their thoughts on everything Viking. Often, I am asked for my opinions on the state of things as well. Make no mistake, sometimes I have to tow the company line, and sometimes I can say what I really think.
A question that I have gotten more often than perhaps any other over my 22 years at Portland State is this: How many points do I think basketball legend Freeman Williams would have scored if he had played in the era of the three-point line?
After years of saying, "I have no idea," I finally decided to sit down and try to work it out. I am going to try and make an educated guess on what that number would be. While I have tried to be thoughtful, keep in mind this is a completely, unscientific breakdown. This is NOT sabermetrics, let's just call it Vikingmetrics.
First, for a historical perspective, let's note that Freeman Williams played basketball at Portland State from 1974-78. He scored 3,249 points in 106 career games (Freeman actually scored 3,308 points in 108 games, but two games during his career against a Canadian school, Simon Fraser, are not recognized by the NCAA). He once scored 81 points in a game, and scored 35 points or more on 41 occasions. Freeman ranks second in NCAA basketball history in total points scored behind only LSU's Pete Maravich (3,667 points in 83 career games, 44.2 ppg on .438 career shooting - his numbers coming in three seasons as freshmen were not allowed to play on varsity in those days).
Freeman was a first team All-American in 1978 along with the likes of Larry Bird and Magic Johnson. He went on to play six seasons in the NBA.
As a qualifier to this breakdown, I have to say I never saw Freeman play in college. But, I have probably witnessed in person, more than 3,000 basketball games on the college and professional level.
As a boy I remember reading every article in the newspaper I could get my hands on about Freeman. I remember thinking, 'how does a guy get 35 shots off in a single game?' That can be tough for a 12 year old to wrap his head around. So, I got a little help from a pair of legends in their own right: PSU Hall of Fame Softball Coach and Athlete Teri Mariani; and long-time journalist/columnist/television analyst and basketball aficionado Dwight Jaynes (who also attended Portland State and frequently saw Freeman play). Mariani, who was a student-athlete and coach during that era said she never missed a home game: "I enjoyed watching him play so much and if you didn't get to the games early, you didn't get a seat!"
Here goes….
For starters, everybody who discusses this subject says Freeman would have scored so many more points with a three-point line because he could really shoot it from downtown. That may be true, but people also tend to exaggerate the past. There were at least 100,000 people that saw Wilt Chamberlain score 100 points the night 4,000 actually showed up in Hershey, PA in 1962. So, some Freeman fans may feel short-changed by my projections.
First, I had to decide if the number of shot attempts might change during Freeman's era (1974-78) if the three-point line was intact. During Freeman's four seasons at Portland State, college basketball was a far more wide-open, less defensive-oriented game. The Vikings averaged 79.9 field goal attempts per game during Freeman's four seasons, shooting .455 from the field and averaging 87.4 points per game. In comparison, during PSU's past four seasons (2007-11), the Vikings have averaged 56.9 field goal attempts per game (yes, 23 shots fewer per game!), shooting .459 from the field and averaging 74.4 points per game. Before you think the Vikings numbers are down, consider this: PSU has led the Big Sky Conference in scoring each of those four seasons, and ranked among the top 25% of teams in the NCAA in scoring each year. That is how much the game has changed in 30+ years.
Therefore, if the three-pointer was in effect in the 1970s, it is logical to think that defenses would be forced to be a little more sophisticated to better cover the entire front court. With no shot clock in that era either, offenses may have spent more time trying to get off a shot - including working for an open three-pointer.
Or, it may have been just as free-wheeling as ever. Perhaps Freeman would have regularly pulled up from three-point range on the fast break - as I am told he often chose to do when deep shots were worth only two points.
Since it is presumptuous for me to assume an entire change in style of play by teams of that era, I am going to pass on this breakdown and only work with the numbers that exist (I am a man of sport, not a man of science - I will leave that kind of analysis to far more intelligent people than me).
The next step was to figure out how many three-point shots Freeman might have taken from his actual total. This can be a bit tough. I decided to go with taking half of his total attempts and converting them to three-pointers. That is a reasonable percentage for a shooting guard in the current era, but would that be close to accurate for Freeman?
Said Mariani: "I think (that) seems quite reasonable and possibly even a little on the conservative side. My memory of Freeman is mostly outside shots unless he had a lane to drive or off a fast break. He didn't ever post up in my memory or do step back jumpers. When he was fouled, it was on the drive as they started to play him tighter as he got hotter from the outside. I really believe more than half his field goals would have been threes as he had the philosophy of "feel the leather, shoot the leather" but I think for your analysis, you are right to keep it at 50%. I would stick with what you have for numbers."
Said Jaynes: "Any projection about threes for that era has to take into consideration that guys like Freeman and Pistol Pete shot a TON of shots from way downtown… but shot a good portion of them virtually unguarded. You really didn't defend the perimeter hard in those days because those shots were worth only two points. You'd rather those guys shoot from out there than anywhere else because the payoff was the same for a layup! Most teams defended from the inside out -- it was the way it was taught in those days and it made the most sense. You'd sag in the middle and allow the outside shots.
"The consequences of that is that I am not sure Freeman would have shot nearly as well from the outside if there was a three-point rule - same for Pete. All of a sudden, the defense jumps out and gets a hand in your face and defends that shot. If they are worth three, you gotta guard them a lot harder, and a LOT of Freeman's were simply unguarded because teams had a hard time believing he would shoot from there.
"One other thing people miss about Freeman is the way he scored most of his points. There was no more of a cherry picker in basketball history than Freeman. The other team would shoot and he'd evacuate... he'd leak out immediately. My memory sees a whole lot of him on his own going in for uncontested layups after sneaking out to get a long pass. (His coach, Ken) Edwards was fine with that, too, because the whole idea was to get him points, any way possible."
So, considering the comments from Mariani and Jaynes, half of Freeman's shots as three-point attempts seems like a fair place to start.
Freeman Williams made 1,369 field goals in 106 games at PSU. He attempted 2,926 shots, hitting .468 from the field. Based on the same number of attempts taken, maybe half of which would have been threes, he would have shot a lower percentage. So, even if he made 40% of his threes, which would be a very high percentage, he would have shot .434 overall. That means he would have made only 1,270 field goals.
How many three pointers would Freeman have made?
If half of his attempts were threes (1,463) and he shot 40% that means he might have made as many as 585 three-pointers (5.5 per game over his career). Some who saw Freeman play might say, "oh, he would have made far more than that," knowing his propensity for taking long shots. However, 5.5 is probably a stretch since this year's NCAA leader, Kevin Foster of Santa Clara made only 3.7 per game (at a .368 clip), and that is a career year. Jimmer Fredette of BYU made 3.4 per game this year at a .396 clip. In a given year, Freeman might have made 6 or 7 threes per game, but keep in mind as a freshman he averaged "only" 16.8 points, so likely would have made far fewer threes that year.
But, knowing that Freeman scored in the high 30s in his best years, 5.5 three-pointers made per game is not unrealistic. In fact, maybe the more unrealistic number is him shooting only half of his shots from three-point range. Consider, PSU's top three-point shooter in 2010-11, Melvin Jones, took 67% of his shots from behind the arc. But, Jones being only 5-10, was likely to take more outside shots than the bigger (6-4), more physical Freeman Williams. And, based on Jaynes' comment regarding Williams propensity for cherry picking for lay-ins - those Portland State teams were unlikely to give up on the easy points.
The toughest analysis for me is, what percentage would Freeman have shot from three-point range?
Defenses weren't as sophisticated in Freeman's days and players overall weren't as athletic, meaning he would likely get more shots that he wanted (open three-pointers) than most players can get these days. And, Freeman definitely had a shoot-first, ask-questions-later mentality on the court.
Jaynes had an interesting analysis of Freeman's shooting ability: "The thing is, he really was a great shooter, very pure, but he was not terribly athletic. And if he'd been defended hard -- and he was when they played better teams -- he had a lot more trouble scoring and needed more shots. He could SCORE against everybody, but I seem to remember him needing many more shots to do it against better teams."
Mariani's take: "I have not seen a smoother basketball player on the men's side. He seemed to float on the court. His jumper gave the appearance of almost a two-handed jumper, not the pure one hand like you see today. The biggest part though, was his shots were all net - he didn't have shots that bounced around the rim and in - they were all net. That stood out to me the most."
So, Jaynes and Mariani agreed on Freeman's pure shooting ability. Considering that Freeman was playing teams on a remarkably large sliding scale of talent from Rocky Mountain (81 points - third most in NCAA history) to Kentucky (39 points), Southern Oregon (71 - fifth most in NCAA history) to UNLV (50), and George Fox (66 - seventh most in NCAA history) to USC (49). I think Freeman would have loaded up on threes against weaker opponents - in an era when stars DID NOT sit down during blowouts - and possibly had some remarkable shooting nights (say 12-15 from the arc on a given night against a small college) as well as some tough shooting nights (2-15 against a big-time school that defended him well). In those days, competing as an NCAA Division I independent, PSU could play more than two small colleges in a given season. I think the numbers would all even out.
So, let's give Freeman the benefit of the doubt on percentage and say he shot 40% - or approximately the same as Jimmer - and that he could make as many as 585 (Again, referencing Jimmer, the BYU star made 296 three-pointers in a 139-game career, shooting .394 overall). Therefore, for Freeman's career (assuming the same two-point percentage), he would have shot 685-1,463 on two-pointers, and 585-1,463 on three-pointers. That makes 1,270-2,926 (.434).
But, we aren't done yet. If Freeman would have taken that many three-point shots, he certainly would have been fouled less and gotten to the free throw line less often (example: Melvin Jones shot only 60 free throws in 30 games for the Vikings this year). Freeman might have fallen in love with the three-pointer, and hit seven or eight per game. That also means he might have been camped out on the perimeter avoiding a lot of contact, thereby giving back some free throw attempts.
"You are so right about one thing," said Jaynes. "Freeman would have fallen in love with the three ball. Just about every scorer I've seen has done that and it's not been for the good of the game in most cases… you don't get fouled nearly as often if you shoot a lot of threes."
In his career, Freeman was 511-648 (.789) at the line. That is 6.1 free throw attempts per game - a lot for a jump shooter - because he was more inclined to take the ball into traffic for a better shot (or foul), as Mariani mentioned above. Falling back on a long, low percentage two-pointer had little value in those days. These days, it is a worthwhile option when the value is three points.
Since we are already giving Freeman a remarkable number of three-point makes (585), it is realistic to dock him at the free throw line as he stands back and avoids the contact. Still, to hear all the stories told about Freeman, he was already jacking up a lot of shots from deep without a three-point line, so I don't think it would have affected his free throws that much. I am going to assume a completely random - but likely close - average of five free throw attempts per game. In his 106-game career, that means 530 free throw attempts. At .789 from the line, he would have made about 418 free throws.
That brings us to our total and the answer to the oft-asked question, how many points would Freeman Williams have scored at Portland State with a three-point line?
Freeman's actual career numbers
field goals: 1,369-2,926 .468
free throws: 511-648 .789
total points: 3,249 in 106 games (30.65 ppg)
Freeman's projected career numbers with a three-point line
2-pt field goals: 685-1,463 .468
3-pt field goals: 585-1,463 .400
total field goals: 1,270-2,926 .434
free throws: 418-530 .789
total points: 3,543 in 106 games (33.42 ppg)
And just for fun, an analysis of Freeman's best scoring season, his junior year, 1976-77:
field goals: 417-838 .498
free throws: 176-221 .796
total points: 1,010 in 26 games (38.84 ppg)
Freeman's projected numbers for 1976-77 with a three-point line:
2-pt field goals: 209-419 .498
3-pt field goals: 174-419 .415 (since his overall percentage was .030 higher than his career percentage, I also gave him a .015 boost in three-point percentage - scientific? no. likely? yes.)
total field goals: 383-838 .457
free throws: 145-182 (Freeman averaged 8.5 FTAs, so I adjusted to 7.0 FTAs - again unscientific, but a reasonable deduction)
total points: 1,085 points in 26 games (41.73 ppg!!)
I hope that breakdown satisfies the curious and is at least a little interesting. Looking back at the all-time greats is always interesting. Just don't ask me to figure out how many points Maravich would have scored with a three-point line….!
Former LSU Basketball Coach Dale Brown projected Maravich might have made 13 three-pointers per game in his career. However, Brown took into account the shots Maravich took, not how the game might have played out differently with the line in effect, which I have tried to do with Freeman. And, Maravich took 10 more shots per game over his career (38.1 FGA to 27.6 FGA) than Freeman attempted.
Finally, the all-time NCAA leader in three-point field goals made in a career going into the 2010-11 season was JJ Redick of Duke, with 457 in 139 games. So, you see projecting 585 for Freeman in 106 games is a bold number - not to mention the potential 1,079 three-pointers that Brown presumes Maravich would have made in 83 games. Still Maravich likely would have pumped that 44.2 career average up around 50 per game.
Freeman Williams statistical bio on Basketball-Reference.com
Freeman Williams Portland State Athletics Hall of Fame bio
For reference, here are the top five all-time Division I basketball scorers (through 2011)
1. Pete Maravich - 3,667 - LSU - 1967-70
2. Freeman Williams - 3,249 - PSU - 1974-78
3. Lionel Simmons - 3,217 - LaSalle: 1986-90
4. Alphonso Ford - 3,165 - Mississippi Valley State, 1989-93
5. Harry Kelly - 3,066 - Texas Southern, 1979-83
Teri Mariani was the Head Coach of the softball program for more than 30 seasons at Portland State, as well as a long-time athletics administrator and legendary athlete. Now retired, she serves as the radio play-by-play voice for PSU women's volleyball, basketball and softball.
Dwight Jaynes has been telling it like it is as a sports journalist since 1976 at the Portland Journal, The Oregonian and the Portland Tribune, as well as on sports talk radio. Jaynes is now a mainstay on Comcast Sports Net's Talkin' Ball program. He also writes an insightful blog on all things sports.
